Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.028467 2.147376 2.272363 2.414006 2.570656 2.739278 2.935423
2025-08-31 1.853982 2.018441 2.199598 2.415668 2.668682 2.958547 3.320188
2025-09-07 1.749685 1.941547 2.159849 2.429911 2.759822 3.156399 3.680018
2025-09-14 1.645434 1.851061 2.090600 2.395112 2.779356 3.259109 3.922675
2025-09-21 1.558836 1.773034 2.027362 2.358012 2.786781 3.339974 4.137499
2025-09-28 1.481785 1.700610 1.964543 2.314177 2.778214 3.394232 4.315882
2025-10-05 1.450376 1.681421 1.965077 2.349004 2.872546 3.591605 4.717573
2025-10-12 1.423703 1.665863 1.968087 2.385499 2.969670 3.799230 5.159638
2025-10-19 1.396413 1.647542 1.965632 2.413152 3.054765 3.995304 5.609368
2025-10-26 1.356360 1.610581 1.936313 2.401296 3.080929 4.103331 5.926053
2025-11-02 1.319293 1.575729 1.907774 2.388173 3.103120 4.205480 6.245351
2025-11-09 1.280030 1.536316 1.871113 2.361037 3.101535 4.268086 6.499819
2025-11-16 1.242501 1.498421 1.835657 2.334753 3.100904 4.334535 6.777880
2025-11-23 1.217043 1.475768 1.820119 2.336450 3.143599 4.477530 7.234083
2025-11-30 1.197289 1.459949 1.813136 2.349938 3.205251 4.658684 7.806118
2025-12-07 1.163833 1.424216 1.776640 2.316982 3.188707 4.697590 8.070861
2025-12-14 1.131636 1.389221 1.739908 2.281828 3.166019 4.722613 8.308121
2025-12-21 1.099201 1.352981 1.700182 2.240269 3.129919 4.718958 8.475813
2025-12-28 1.091135 1.350325 1.708500 2.273290 3.222305 4.970070 9.343203
2026-01-04 1.083911 1.348490 1.717728 2.307874 3.319514 5.242124 10.353456
2026-01-11 1.074606 1.343331 1.721731 2.334068 3.403462 5.497500 11.409391
2026-01-18 1.055434 1.323521 1.703258 2.322839 3.418474 5.608114 12.058244
2026-01-25 1.036828 1.304024 1.684605 2.310408 3.430279 5.712869 12.726874